Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Dubai - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday


	Marco Trungelliti		Luca Nardi

	1	2
			Watch
	3.4	1.25	Watch
	4.04	1.23	Watch
	3	1.36	Watch
	3.35	1.28	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.45 ↑ (2.54)	1.28 ↓ (1.45)

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marco Trungelliti
27.1%

Luca Nardi
72.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

63.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

60.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marco Trungelliti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Marco Trungelliti's form might have worsened.

Luca Nardi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Luca Nardi's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marco Trungelliti than the current prediction. (+12.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Marco Trungelliti, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Nardi than the current prediction. (-12.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Luca Nardi, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	0%	91.7%

Marco Trungelliti - Luca Nardi Predictions

Users Predictions: Luca Nardi will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Luca Nardi will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Trungelliti is ranked ATP: 131. Nardi is ranked ATP: 94.

Trungelliti has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Nardi has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Trungelliti may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Nardi is the team to beat.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marco Trungelliti
ATP Doha
14.02.26	Marco Trungelliti - Billy Harris	1:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
08.02.26	Hyeon Chung - Marco Trungelliti	2:0 ✺
06.02.26	Soon Woo Kwon - Marco Trungelliti	2:0 ✺
ATP Australian Open
14.01.26	Jaime Faria - Marco Trungelliti	2:0 ✺
13.01.26	Henrique Rocha - Marco Trungelliti	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLLLW
- Luca Nardi
ATP Challenger
11.02.26	Arthur Bouquier - Luca Nardi	2:1 ✺
09.02.26	Jerome Kym - Luca Nardi	0:2 ✺
ATP Montpellier
06.02.26	Martin Damm - Luca Nardi	2:0 ✺
05.02.26	Luca Nardi - Flavio Cobolli	2:0 ✺
04.02.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Luca Nardi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWLWW

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