Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 5 March 2026, Thursday


	Matteo Arnaldi		Mackenzie McDonald

	1	2
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.3	1.63	Watch
	2.38	1.64
	2.34	1.6	Watch
	2.2	1.67	Watch
	2.36	1.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (2.06)	1.64 ↓ (1.71)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
41.4%

Mackenzie McDonald
58.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.4%

54.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Mackenzie McDonald has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.3%	0%	26.7%

Matteo Arnaldi - Mackenzie McDonald Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +2.5 Games - Arnaldi (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Matteo Arnaldi will win (11 of 14 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 57.08% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Matteo Arnaldi will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Arnaldi (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 85. McDonald is ranked ATP: 126.

In recent matches, McDonald has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

McDonald may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Arnaldi won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Australian Open
18.01.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Andrey Rublev	0:3 ✺
ATP Brisbane
04.01.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Daniel Altmaier	Canceled ✺
03.01.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Rinky Hijikata	Hijikata R. walkover ✺
03.01.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Hugo Gaston	2:1 ✺
ATP Paris
25.10.25	Jacob Fearnley - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 L??WL
- Mackenzie McDonald
ATP Indian Wells
03.03.26	Trevor Svajda - Mackenzie McDonald	0:2 ✺
02.03.26	Vitaliy Sachko - Mackenzie McDonald	0:2 ✺
ATP Acapulco
21.02.26	Mackenzie McDonald - Elias Ymer	1:2 ✺
ATP Delray Beach
17.02.26	Sebastian Korda - Mackenzie McDonald	2:0 ✺
ATP Montpellier
04.02.26	Mackenzie McDonald - Aleksandar Kovacevic	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLL?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Montreal
07.08.24	Mackenzie McDonald - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2

Matteo Arnaldi - Mackenzie McDonald: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide