What is the expert prediction for Mackenzie McDonald vs Roberto Carballes Baena?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Mackenzie McDonald vs Roberto Carballes Baena. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Mackenzie McDonald vs Roberto Carballes Baena Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, January 29, 2026)

Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Quimper, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 29 January 2026, Thursday


	Mackenzie McDonald		Roberto Carballes Baena

	1	2
	1.5	2.5	Watch
	1.42	2.55	Watch
	1.57	2.5
	1.57	2.26	Watch
	1.53	2.38
	1.51	2.39	Watch
	1.45	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↑ (1.37)	2.45 ↓ (2.87)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mackenzie McDonald
62%

Roberto Carballes Baena
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.8%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mackenzie McDonald has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mackenzie McDonald's form might have worsened.

Roberto Carballes Baena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Roberto Carballes Baena's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mackenzie McDonald than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Roberto Carballes Baena than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

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Predictions

Score Prediction (the most likely result by bookmakers): 2:0

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Preview

McDonald is ranked ATP: 113. Carballes Baena is ranked ATP: 147.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

McDonald may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

McDonald could have a small edge in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mackenzie McDonald
ATP Challenger
28.01.26	Mackenzie McDonald - Moez Echargui	2:0 ✺
ATP Australian Open
18.01.26	Mackenzie McDonald - Alex De Minaur	0:3 ✺
14.01.26	Mackenzie McDonald - Liam Draxl	1:2 ✺
14.01.26	Mackenzie McDonald - Hugo Grenier	2:0 ✺
12.01.26	Mackenzie McDonald - Dmitry Popko	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLLWW
- Roberto Carballes Baena
ATP Challenger
27.01.26	Roberto Carballes Baena - Michael Geerts	2:0 ✺
ATP Australian Open
13.01.26	Roberto Carballes Baena - Gilles Arnaud Bailly	1:2 ✺
11.01.26	Roberto Carballes Baena - Arthur Bouquier	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
06.01.26	Roberto Carballes Baena - Alexander Blockx	1:2 ✺
05.01.26	Roberto Carballes Baena - Colton Smith	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLWLW

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