Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/32-finals

Date: 23 April 2026, Thursday


	Maria Camila Osorio Serrano		Naomi Osaka

	1	2
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	1.93	1.88
	1.88	2.04
	1.88	1.92	Watch
	2	1.8
	1.97	1.91	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (2.25)	1.91 ↑ (1.6)

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maria Camila Osorio Serrano
49.8%

Naomi Osaka
50.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

58.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maria Camila Osorio Serrano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Maria Camila Osorio Serrano's performance.

Naomi Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Naomi Osaka might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.3%	0%	64.7%

Maria Camila Osorio Serrano - Naomi Osaka Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Osorio Serrano will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). Osaka will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Osaka: 42% – 87.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Osorio Serrano is ranked WTA: 83. Osaka is ranked WTA: 15.

Osorio Serrano has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Osaka may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Osorio Serrano won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Naomi Osaka - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 58.44%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maria Camila Osorio Serrano
WTA Madrid
21.04.26	Anastasia Zakharova - Maria Camila Osorio Serrano	0:2 ✺
WTA Bogota
02.04.26	Maria Camila Osorio Serrano - Jasmin Ortenzi	0:2 ✺
31.03.26	Maria Camila Osorio Serrano - Caroline Dolehide	2:1 ✺
WTA Miami
20.03.26	Karolina Muchova - Maria Camila Osorio Serrano	2:1 ✺
17.03.26	Katerina Siniakova - Maria Camila Osorio Serrano	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLWLW
- Naomi Osaka
WTA Miami
21.03.26	Talia Gibson - Naomi Osaka	2:0 ✺
WTA Indian Wells
10.03.26	Aryna Sabalenka - Naomi Osaka	2:0 ✺
08.03.26	Maria Camila Osorio Serrano - Naomi Osaka	1:2 ✺
06.03.26	Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva - Naomi Osaka	0:2 ✺
WTA Australian Open
24.01.26	Naomi Osaka - Maddison Inglis	Inglis M. walkover ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWW?

Latest Head to Head

WTA Indian Wells
08.03.26	Maria Camila Osorio Serrano - Naomi Osaka	1:2
05.03.25	Maria Camila Osorio Serrano - Naomi Osaka	2:0
WTA Australian Open
16.01.22	Maria Camila Osorio Serrano - Naomi Osaka	0:2

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