Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 23 April 2025, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 2


	Maria Lourdes Carle		Rebecca Sramkova

	1	2
	2.3	1.62	Watch
	2.45	1.53
	2.28	1.64	Watch
	2.17	1.76
	2.1	1.72	Watch
	2.6	1.5
	2.17	1.7	Watch
	2.28	1.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↓ (3.11)	1.64 ↑ (1.4)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maria Lourdes Carle
41.7%

Rebecca Sramkova
58.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.1%

68.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.6%

70.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maria Lourdes Carle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Maria Lourdes Carle's performance.

Rebecca Sramkova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rebecca Sramkova might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maria Lourdes Carle than the current prediction. (-12.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Maria Lourdes Carle that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rebecca Sramkova than the current prediction. (+12.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rebecca Sramkova could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Maria Lourdes Carle - Rebecca Sramkova Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Carle will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Sramkova will win (votes: 6 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sramkova: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Carle (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Sramkova (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Carle is ranked WTA: 119. Sramkova is ranked WTA: 38.

One and the other player get a very uncertain game.

Sramkova could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Sramkova will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maria Lourdes Carle
WTA Madrid
22.04.25	Bernarda Pera - Maria Lourdes Carle	0:2 ✺
21.04.25	Daria Snigur - Maria Lourdes Carle	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
16.04.25	Andrea Lazaro Garcia - Maria Lourdes Carle	2:0 ✺
11.04.25	Maria Lourdes Carle - Tyra Caterina Grant	1:2 ✺
10.04.25	Maria Lourdes Carle - Nao Hibino	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWLLW
- Rebecca Sramkova
WTA Stuttgart
16.04.25	Magdalena Frech - Rebecca Sramkova	Canceled ✺
WTA Billie Jean King Cup World Group
13.04.25	Rebecca Sramkova - Bernarda Pera	0:2 ✺
11.04.25	Rebecca Sramkova - Johanne Christine Svendsen	2:1 ✺
WTA Miami
20.03.25	Rebecca Sramkova - Jasmine Paolini	0:2 ✺
18.03.25	Lucrezia Stefanini - Rebecca Sramkova	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 ?LWLW

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