Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Merida - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday


	Maria Timofeeva		Maria Lourdes Carle

	1	2
			Watch
	1.42	2.65	Watch
	1.46	2.65	Watch
	1.44	2.63
	1.43	2.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.62)	2.69 ↑ (2.23)

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maria Timofeeva
65.2%

Maria Lourdes Carle
34.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

47.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maria Timofeeva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Maria Timofeeva's performance.

Maria Lourdes Carle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Maria Lourdes Carle might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maria Timofeeva than the current prediction. (-12.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Maria Timofeeva that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maria Lourdes Carle than the current prediction. (+12.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Maria Lourdes Carle could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Maria Timofeeva - Maria Lourdes Carle Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Timofeeva will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Carle will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Carle (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 22 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +3.5 Games - Carle (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Carle (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Timofeeva is ranked WTA: 154. Carle is ranked WTA: 155.

Timofeeva has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Carle has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Timofeeva will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Timofeeva won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Maria Timofeeva - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 57.92%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maria Timofeeva
WTA Merida
21.02.26	Maria Timofeeva - Martina Capurro Taborda	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
22.01.26	Carol Young Suh Lee - Maria Timofeeva	Timofeeva M. retired ✺
20.01.26	Anastasia Tikhonova - Maria Timofeeva	0:2 ✺
WTA Australian Open
12.01.26	Mai Hontama - Maria Timofeeva	2:1 ✺
WTA Brisbane
02.01.26	Maria Timofeeva - Aliaksandra Sasnovich	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 W?WLL
- Maria Lourdes Carle
WTA Merida
21.02.26	Tiphanie Lemaitre - Maria Lourdes Carle	Lemaitre T. retired ✺
ITF Tournaments
05.02.26	Eryn Cayetano - Maria Lourdes Carle	2:1 ✺
03.02.26	Alicia Herrero Linana - Maria Lourdes Carle	1:2 ✺
28.01.26	Madison Brengle - Maria Lourdes Carle	2:0 ✺
WTA Australian Open
13.01.26	Maria Lourdes Carle - Yue Yuan	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 ?LWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
04.09.25	Maria Lourdes Carle - Maria Timofeeva	1:2
ITF Tournaments
10.10.24	Maria Timofeeva - Maria Lourdes Carle	2:1

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