Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Hong Kong, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 5 January 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Hong Kong 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Marin Cilic		Adrian Mannarino

	1	2
	1.8	2	Watch
	1.72	2.1
	1.8	1.99	Watch
	1.30	3.53	Watch
	1.8	2	Watch
	1.8	2.01	Watch
	1.71	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↑ (1.6)	2.24 ↑ (2.2)

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marin Cilic
56.8%

Adrian Mannarino
43.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

57.9%

42.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marin Cilic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Adrian Mannarino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Marin Cilic - Adrian Mannarino Predictions

Users Predictions: Marin Cilic will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Marin Cilic will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Cilic is ranked ATP: 73. Mannarino is ranked ATP: 69.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Cilic won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 2:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Adrian Mannarino - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 42.11%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marin Cilic
ATP Challenger
07.11.25	Marin Cilic - Otto Virtanen	0:2 ✺
05.11.25	Marin Cilic - Stefano Napolitano	2:1 ✺
03.11.25	Marin Cilic - Benjamin Hassan	2:0 ✺
ATP Basel
23.10.25	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Marin Cilic	2:0 ✺
21.10.25	David Goffin - Marin Cilic	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWWLW
- Adrian Mannarino
Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Men
06.12.25	Andrey Rublev - Adrian Mannarino	3:2 ✺
06.12.25	Tomas Machac - Adrian Mannarino	3:2 ✺
05.12.25	Alex De Minaur - Adrian Mannarino	3:1 ✺
ATP Metz
02.11.25	Arthur Cazaux - Adrian Mannarino	2:0 ✺
ATP Paris
25.10.25	Adrian Mannarino - Yannick Hanfmann	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Wimbledon
02.07.19	Marin Cilic - Adrian Mannarino	3:0
ATP Tokyo
07.10.17	Marin Cilic - Adrian Mannarino	1:2
ATP London
16.06.15	Marin Cilic - Adrian Mannarino	2:1

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