Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 30 April 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Madrid 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	06:00	beIN Sports 1
Brazil	17:00	ESPN 2
Czech Republic	22:00	CANAL+ Sport 2, Oneplay
Denmark	22:00	TV2 Play
Finland	23:00	DAZN
France	22:00	beIN Sports 3
Germany	22:00	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
Greece	23:00	Nova Sports 6
Poland	22:00	CANAL+ Sport 2
Romania	23:00	Digi Sport 2, Digi Sport 4
Slovakia	22:00	Voyo
Sweden	22:00	DAZN
Ukraine	23:00	Setanta Sports Premium
United Kingdom	21:00	Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Tennis


	Marta Kostyuk		Anastasia Potapova

	1	2
	1.33	3.4	Watch
	1.36	3.2
	1.34	3.25	Watch
	1.37	3.45
	1.38	3.53	Watch
	1.36	3.1
	1.37	3.17	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.4)	3.3 ↑ (2.92)

The best margin for this event is 0.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marta Kostyuk
70.8%

Anastasia Potapova
29.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

67.6%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67%

33%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marta Kostyuk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Anastasia Potapova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marta Kostyuk than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Anastasia Potapova than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Marta Kostyuk - Anastasia Potapova Predictions

Users Predictions: Marta Kostyuk will win (21 of 24 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.27% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Marta Kostyuk will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Kostyuk is ranked WTA: 23. Potapova is ranked WTA: 56.

Kostyuk is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Potapova is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Potapova may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Kostyuk is considered a favorite.

We predict that Kostyuk will win today's game, with odds of 1.38.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Kostyuk won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Marta Kostyuk - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 67.59%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marta Kostyuk
WTA Madrid
29.04.26	Marta Kostyuk - Linda Noskova	2:0 ✺
27.04.26	Marta Kostyuk - Caty McNally	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Jessica Pegula - Marta Kostyuk	0:2 ✺
24.04.26	Yulia Putintseva - Marta Kostyuk	0:2 ✺
WTA Rouen
19.04.26	Marta Kostyuk - Veronika Podrez	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWWWW
- Anastasia Potapova
WTA Madrid
29.04.26	Karolina Pliskova - Anastasia Potapova	1:2 ✺
27.04.26	Anastasia Potapova - Elena Rybakina	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Anastasia Potapova - Jelena Ostapenko	2:1 ✺
21.04.26	Anastasia Potapova - Sinja Kraus	1:2 ✺
20.04.26	Anastasia Potapova - Teodora Kostovic	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.7 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

WTA Madrid
29.04.25	Marta Kostyuk - Anastasia Potapova	2:0
WTA Indian Wells
14.03.24	Anastasia Potapova - Marta Kostyuk	0:2
WTA Birmingham
20.06.23	Marta Kostyuk - Anastasia Potapova	1:2
WTA Miami
23.03.23	Anastasia Potapova - Marta Kostyuk	2:0

Marta Kostyuk - Anastasia Potapova