Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Chengdu, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 September 2026, Thursday


	Martin Damm		Shintaro Mochizuki

	1	2
	1.44	2.75	Watch
	1.48	2.60
	1.45	2.7	Watch
	1.47	2.61	Watch
	1.48	2.65
	1.46	2.75	Watch
	1.44	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↑ (1.45)	2.68 ↓ (2.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Martin Damm
64.7%

Shintaro Mochizuki
35.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

65.4%

34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Martin Damm has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Shintaro Mochizuki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Martin Damm than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shintaro Mochizuki than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Martin Damm - Shintaro Mochizuki Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Damm will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Mochizuki will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Damm is ranked ATP: 106., and Mochizuki is ranked ATP: 125..

Both players have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Damm could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Damm is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Damm has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:5 (averaging 1.3:1.7 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Martin Damm - the odds 1.45 are the expected chance of winning is 65.37%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Shintaro Mochizuki - the odds 2.73 are the expected chance of winning is 34.63%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Martin Damm
ATP US Open
31.08.26	Martin Damm - Francis Tiafoe	2:3 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
26.08.26	Martin Damm - Fabian Marozsan	1:2 ✺
25.08.26	Daniil Medvedev - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
24.08.26	Martin Damm - Abedallah Shelbayh	2:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
11.08.26	Martin Damm - Stefanos Sakellaridis	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLWWL
- Shintaro Mochizuki
ATP Chengdu
23.09.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Pavel Kotov	2:0 ✺
22.09.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Linang Xiao	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
15.09.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Pavel Kotov	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
31.08.26	Jakub Mensik - Shintaro Mochizuki	3:0 ✺
28.08.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Francesco Passaro	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP US Open
19.08.24	Martin Damm - Shintaro Mochizuki	1:2
ITF Tournaments
01.12.20	Martin Damm - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:1
Boys Singles Wimbledon
12.07.19	Shintaro Mochizuki - Martin Damm	2:1

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