Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Chengdu - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 23 September 2026, Wednesday


	Shintaro Mochizuki		Pavel Kotov

	1	2
			Watch
	2.20	1.62
	2.28	1.58	Watch
	2.20	1.64	Watch
	2.19	1.68
	2.31	1.62	Watch
	2.40	1.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (2.2)	1.61 ↓ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shintaro Mochizuki
41.5%

Pavel Kotov
58.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

57.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

54%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shintaro Mochizuki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Pavel Kotov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shintaro Mochizuki than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pavel Kotov than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

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Preview

Mochizuki is ranked ATP: 125., and Kotov is ranked ATP: 188..

Mochizuki has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Kotov is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Kotov may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Kotov is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

Our forecast points to a victory for Kotov in today's match, at odds of 1.64.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Mochizuki has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Shintaro Mochizuki - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 42.71%, but this team recently wins 64% of matches with these odds.

Pavel Kotov - the odds 1.64 are the expected chance of winning is 57.29%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shintaro Mochizuki
ATP Chengdu
22.09.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Linang Xiao	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
15.09.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Pavel Kotov	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
31.08.26	Jakub Mensik - Shintaro Mochizuki	3:0 ✺
28.08.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Francesco Passaro	0:2 ✺
26.08.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Braden Shick	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WLLLW
- Pavel Kotov
ATP Chengdu
22.09.26	Luca Castelnuovo - Pavel Kotov	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
20.09.26	Pavel Kotov - Marat Sharipov	0:2 ✺
19.09.26	Pavel Kotov - Bernard Tomic	2:0 ✺
18.09.26	Pavel Kotov - Rio Noguchi	2:0 ✺
16.09.26	Pavel Kotov - Akira Santillan	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
15.09.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Pavel Kotov	0:2

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