Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 19 January 2026, Monday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Martin Damm		Valentin Vacherot

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.75	1.46	Watch
	2.64	1.48	Watch
	2.75	1.44
	2.78	1.46	Watch
	2.66	1.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↓ (2.93)	1.46 ↑ (1.39)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Martin Damm
34.9%

Valentin Vacherot
65.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

67.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.6%

70.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Martin Damm has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Valentin Vacherot has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Martin Damm than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Martin Damm that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valentin Vacherot than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Valentin Vacherot could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	0%	77.8%

Martin Damm - Valentin Vacherot Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Damm will win (votes: 4 - 22.2%). Vacherot will win (votes: 14 - 77.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vacherot: 58.6% – 97%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 41.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Valentin Vacherot will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Damm is ranked ATP: 177. Vacherot is ranked ATP: 32.

Damm is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Vacherot's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Vacherot will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Martin Damm
ATP Australian Open
14.01.26	Gilles Arnaud Bailly - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
13.01.26	Martin Damm - Titouan Droguet	2:0 ✺
11.01.26	Martin Damm - Gauthier Onclin	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
05.01.26	Martin Damm - Chris Rodesch	0:2 ✺
04.01.26	Martin Damm - Ymerali Ibraimi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWLW
- Valentin Vacherot
ATP Adelaide
15.01.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Valentin Vacherot	2:0 ✺
14.01.26	Thanasi Kokkinakis - Valentin Vacherot	Vacherot V. walkover ✺
12.01.26	Miomir Kecmanovic - Valentin Vacherot	0:2 ✺
ATP Brisbane
04.01.26	Valentin Vacherot - Sebastian Korda	0:2 ✺
Exhibition Others Matches Tennis Men
27.12.25	Valentin Vacherot - Zhizhen Zhang	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 L?WLW

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