Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday


	Marton Fucsovics		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
			Watch
			Watch
	1.69	2.05	Watch
	1.75	2.11
	1.69	2.05	Watch
	1.7	2.14	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 (1.71)	2.09 ↑ (1.97)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marton Fucsovics
55%

Matteo Arnaldi
45%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.5%

46.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.2%

44.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marton Fucsovics has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marton Fucsovics than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Marton Fucsovics - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Fucsovics will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Arnaldi will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fucsovics: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Marton Fucsovics will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Fucsovics is ranked ATP: 58. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 73.

Recent performances by Fucsovics have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Arnaldi is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Fucsovics may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Fucsovics won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marton Fucsovics
ATP Tokyo
21.09.25	Marton Fucsovics - Filip Misolic	2:0 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
13.09.25	Marton Fucsovics - Jurij Rodionov	0:2 ✺
12.09.25	Marton Fucsovics - Filip Misolic	Canceled ✺
ATP US Open
26.08.25	Marton Fucsovics - Denis Shapovalov	0:3 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
23.08.25	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Marton Fucsovics	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WL?LW
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Tokyo
22.09.25	Luca Nardi - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Hangzhou
19.09.25	Arthur Cazaux - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
26.08.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Francisco Cerundolo	2:3 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
19.08.25	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
07.08.25	Benjamin Bonzi - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Adelaide
08.01.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Marton Fucsovics	Canceled
ATP Brisbane
02.01.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Marton Fucsovics	2:1
ATP Challenger
03.01.23	Marton Fucsovics - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1

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