Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Hangzhou, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 19 September 2025, Friday


	Arthur Cazaux		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	2	1.8	Watch
	1.87	1.91	Watch
	1.95	1.75	Watch
	1.29	3.57	Watch
			Watch
	2.02	1.82	Watch
	1.95	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.2)	2.11 ↑ (1.68)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arthur Cazaux
53.3%

Matteo Arnaldi
46.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

56.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

55.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arthur Cazaux has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Arthur Cazaux's performance.

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Matteo Arnaldi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arthur Cazaux than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Arthur Cazaux that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Matteo Arnaldi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	0%	72.7%

Arthur Cazaux - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Cazaux will win (votes: 5 - 23.8%). Arnaldi will win (votes: 16 - 76.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arnaldi: 58% – 94.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -4.5 Games - Arnaldi (3.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Matteo Arnaldi will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Cazaux (votes: 1 - 9.1%). Arnaldi (votes: 10 - 90.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Cazaux is ranked ATP: 84. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 73.

Cazaux has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Arnaldi is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Cazaux won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arthur Cazaux
ATP US Open
22.08.25	Arthur Cazaux - Jan-Lennard Struff	0:2 ✺
21.08.25	Arthur Cazaux - Jay Clarke	2:0 ✺
18.08.25	Arthur Cazaux - Mark Lajal	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
15.08.25	Chak Lam Coleman Wong - Arthur Cazaux	0:2 ✺
15.08.25	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Arthur Cazaux	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWWWL
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP US Open
26.08.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Francisco Cerundolo	2:3 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
19.08.25	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
07.08.25	Benjamin Bonzi - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
ATP Toronto
31.07.25	Alexander Zverev - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
29.07.25	Tristan Schoolkate - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Barcelona
15.04.24	Matteo Arnaldi - Arthur Cazaux	Arnaldi M. retired
Boys Singles French Open
04.06.19	Arthur Cazaux - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0

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