Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 26 August 2025, Tuesday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Matteo Arnaldi		Francisco Cerundolo

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.1	1.72
	2.04	1.74	Watch
	2.21	1.73
	2.14	1.71	Watch
	2.1	1.73
	2.12	1.74	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (1.91)	1.73 ↓ (1.91)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
45%

Francisco Cerundolo
55%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.4%

52.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Francisco Cerundolo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francisco Cerundolo than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.4%	0%	94.6%

Matteo Arnaldi - Francisco Cerundolo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -5.5 Games - Cerundolo (2.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Francisco Cerundolo will win (53 of 55 users predict this - 96.36%).
Confidence interval (95%): 91.41% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Francisco Cerundolo will win (27 of 29 users predict this - 93.1%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 30 Selected Experts predict this event. Arnaldi (votes: 2 - 6.7%). Cerundolo (votes: 28 - 93.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:3

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Preview

Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 62. Cerundolo is ranked ATP: 24.

Arnaldi is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Cerundolo's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Arnaldi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Matteo Arnaldi - the odds 1.91 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Winston-Salem
19.08.25	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
07.08.25	Benjamin Bonzi - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
ATP Toronto
31.07.25	Alexander Zverev - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
29.07.25	Tristan Schoolkate - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Washington
24.07.25	Taylor Harry Fritz - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLWL
- Francisco Cerundolo
ATP Toronto
02.08.25	Alexander Zverev - Francisco Cerundolo	Cerundolo F. retired ✺
31.07.25	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Francisco Cerundolo	0:2 ✺
29.07.25	Jaume Munar - Francisco Cerundolo	1:2 ✺
ATP Umag
23.07.25	Francisco Cerundolo - Carlos Taberner	1:2 ✺
ATP Bastad
19.07.25	Francisco Cerundolo - Luciano Darderi	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 ?WWLL

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