Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 22 September 2025, Monday


	Luca Nardi		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
			Watch
			Watch
			Watch
	2.97	1.41
	4.92	1.18	Watch
	2.94	1.37	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.61 ↑ (2.75)	1.32 ↓ (1.41)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Luca Nardi
26.8%

Matteo Arnaldi
73.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.9%

66.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38%

62%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luca Nardi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Luca Nardi's form might have worsened.

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Matteo Arnaldi's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Nardi than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Luca Nardi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Matteo Arnaldi, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Luca Nardi - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 19.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Preview

Nardi is ranked ATP: 85. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 73.

Nardi has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Arnaldi is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Nardi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Arnaldi is a strong favorite.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luca Nardi
ATP Hangzhou
17.09.25	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Luca Nardi	Canceled ✺
ATP US Open
24.08.25	Luca Nardi - Tomas Machac	0:3 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
13.08.25	Luca Nardi - Carlos Alcaraz Garfia	0:2 ✺
12.08.25	Jakub Mensik - Luca Nardi	Mensik J. retired ✺
10.08.25	Luca Nardi - Denis Shapovalov	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 ?LL?W
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Hangzhou
19.09.25	Arthur Cazaux - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
26.08.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Francisco Cerundolo	2:3 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
19.08.25	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
07.08.25	Benjamin Bonzi - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
ATP Toronto
31.07.25	Alexander Zverev - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Upcoming Matches