Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Cincinnati, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 7 August 2025, Thursday


	Benjamin Bonzi		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.7	1.45
	2.8	1.44	Watch
	2.88	1.46
	3.11	1.36	Watch
	2.9	1.4	Watch
			Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↓ (2.93)	1.43 ↑ (1.42)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benjamin Bonzi
33.3%

Matteo Arnaldi
66.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

67.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.1%

68.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benjamin Bonzi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Benjamin Bonzi than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	0%	44.4%

Benjamin Bonzi - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Bonzi will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Arnaldi will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bonzi: 29% – 96%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +2.5 Games - Bonzi (2.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Benjamin Bonzi will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Bonzi (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Bonzi is ranked ATP: 66. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 41.

Bonzi has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Arnaldi has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Bonzi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Arnaldi is the team to beat.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Benjamin Bonzi
ATP Toronto
27.07.25	Adam Walton - Benjamin Bonzi	2:1 ✺
ATP Washington
21.07.25	Benjamin Bonzi - Fabian Marozsan	0:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
02.07.25	Jordan Thompson - Benjamin Bonzi	3:2 ✺
30.06.25	Benjamin Bonzi - Daniil Medvedev	3:1 ✺
ATP Mallorca
24.06.25	Benjamin Bonzi - Brandon Holt	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22 LLLWL
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Toronto
31.07.25	Alexander Zverev - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
29.07.25	Tristan Schoolkate - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
ATP Washington
24.07.25	Taylor Harry Fritz - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
23.07.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Lorenzo Sonego	2:0 ✺
21.07.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Daniel Altmaier	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWLWW

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