Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Francavilla, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 6 May 2026, Wednesday


	August Holmgren		Guy Den Ouden

	1	2
			Watch
	2.13	1.64	Watch
	2.31	1.67
	2.14	1.63	Watch
	2.2	1.62
	2.11	1.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.38)	1.64 ↑ (1.52)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

August Holmgren
43%

Guy Den Ouden
57%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

61%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9%

65.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

August Holmgren has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Guy Den Ouden has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for August Holmgren than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with August Holmgren that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guy Den Ouden than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Guy Den Ouden could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

August Holmgren - Guy Den Ouden Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Holmgren will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Den Ouden will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Holmgren is ranked ATP: 167. Den Ouden is ranked ATP: 195.

Holmgren is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Den Ouden is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Holmgren may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Den Ouden will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Holmgren won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:4. (average 0.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- August Holmgren
ATP Challenger
05.05.26	Alex Barrena - August Holmgren	0:2 ✺
25.04.26	August Holmgren - Soon Woo Kwon	0:2 ✺
24.04.26	August Holmgren - Leandro Riedi	Riedi L. Retired ✺
23.04.26	Yuta Shimizu - August Holmgren	0:2 ✺
22.04.26	Alexis Galarneau - August Holmgren	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WL?WW
- Guy Den Ouden
ATP Challenger
04.05.26	Juan Pablo Ficovich - Guy Den Ouden	1:2 ✺
21.04.26	Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Guy Den Ouden	2:1 ✺
14.04.26	Guy Den Ouden - Jaime Faria	1:2 ✺
07.04.26	Guy Den Ouden - Andrea Guerrieri	0:2 ✺
09.03.26	Franco Agamenone - Guy Den Ouden	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLLL?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
14.04.25	August Holmgren - Guy Den Ouden	0:2
15.01.24	August Holmgren - Guy Den Ouden	1:2

August Holmgren - Guy Den Ouden: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide