Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Francavilla, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday


	Alex Barrena		August Holmgren

	1	2
			Watch
	1.65	2.1	Watch
	1.61	2.37
	1.62	2.16	Watch
	1.57	2.25
	1.64	2.14	Watch
	1.67	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↑ (1.57)	2.18 ↓ (2.25)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alex Barrena
57.2%

August Holmgren
42.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.9%

41.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.2%

39.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alex Barrena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

August Holmgren has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Barrena than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for August Holmgren than the current prediction. (-3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Alex Barrena - August Holmgren Predictions

Users Predictions: Alex Barrena will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Barrena is ranked ATP: 170. Holmgren is ranked ATP: 185.

Barrena has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Holmgren is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Barrena may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Barrena might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Barrena won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alex Barrena
ATP Challenger
28.04.26	Mika Brunold - Alex Barrena	2:1 ✺
20.04.26	Alex Barrena - Gianluca Cadenasso	1:2 ✺
26.03.26	Alex Barrena - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio	2:1 ✺
24.03.26	Alex Barrena - Igor Marcondes	2:1 ✺
20.03.26	Alex Barrena - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLWWL
- August Holmgren
ATP Challenger
25.04.26	August Holmgren - Soon Woo Kwon	0:2 ✺
24.04.26	August Holmgren - Leandro Riedi	Riedi L. Retired ✺
23.04.26	Yuta Shimizu - August Holmgren	0:2 ✺
22.04.26	Alexis Galarneau - August Holmgren	0:2 ✺
21.04.26	August Holmgren - Bu Yunchaokete	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 L?WWW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
27.07.22	August Holmgren - Alex Barrena	2:1

Alex Barrena - August Holmgren: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide