Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Kobe (Japan), hard (indoor) - 1/16-finals

Date: 11 November 2024, Monday


	Matej Dodig		Naoki Nakagawa

	1	2
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.15	1.62
	2.2	1.6	Watch
	2.22	1.68
	2.12	1.67	Watch
	2.2	1.62	Watch
	2.31	1.57	Watch
	2.2	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↑ (1.62)	1.62 ↓ (2.19)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matej Dodig
42.3%

Naoki Nakagawa
57.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.5%

42.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.5%

41.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matej Dodig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Matej Dodig's form might have worsened.

Naoki Nakagawa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Naoki Nakagawa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matej Dodig than the current prediction. (+16.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Matej Dodig, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Naoki Nakagawa than the current prediction. (-16.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Naoki Nakagawa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45%	0%	55%

Matej Dodig - Naoki Nakagawa Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Dodig will win (votes: 9 - 45%). Nakagawa will win (votes: 11 - 55%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nakagawa: 33.2% – 76.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Dodig is ranked ATP: 270. Nakagawa is ranked ATP: 375.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Nakagawa could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both players.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matej Dodig
ATP Challenger
04.11.24	Matej Dodig - Alex Bolt	Dodig M. retired ✺
08.10.24	Dennis Novak - Matej Dodig	2:0 ✺
01.10.24	Thiago Augustin Tirante - Matej Dodig	2:0 ✺
30.09.24	Matej Dodig - Gerard Campana Lee	2:0 ✺
29.09.24	Matej Dodig - Tiago Pereira	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 ?LLWW
- Naoki Nakagawa
ATP Challenger
04.11.24	Naoki Nakagawa - Alexander Kotzen	0:2 ✺
03.11.24	Naoki Nakagawa - Andres Urrea	2:0 ✺
29.10.24	Naoki Nakagawa - Alexis Galarneau	0:2 ✺
28.10.24	Naoki Nakagawa - Bruno Kuzuhara	2:0 ✺
27.10.24	Naoki Nakagawa - Ozan Baris	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LWLWW

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