Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 24 April 2025, Thursday


	Matteo Arnaldi		Borna Coric

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.7	2.1	Watch
	1.69	2.19	Watch
	1.76	2.15
	1.76	2.05	Watch
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.73	2.12	Watch
	1.69	2.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.59)	2.14 ↓ (2.38)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
55.5%

Borna Coric
44.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.9%

40.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.2%

39.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Borna Coric has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Borna Coric than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.6%	0%	86.4%

Matteo Arnaldi - Borna Coric Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Arnaldi will win (votes: 2 - 9.5%). Coric will win (votes: 19 - 90.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Coric: 78% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Borna Coric will win (13 of 17 users predict this - 76.47%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 44. Coric is ranked ATP: 104.

Arnaldi is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Coric is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Coric could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two players are almost the same in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Barcelona
14.04.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Sebastian Korda	1:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
06.04.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Richard Gasquet	1:2 ✺
ATP Miami
22.03.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Tomas Machac	1:2 ✺
20.03.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Yibing Wu	2:1 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
10.03.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLWL
- Borna Coric
ATP Madrid
22.04.25	Gabriel Diallo - Borna Coric	0:2 ✺
21.04.25	Otto Virtanen - Borna Coric	1:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
13.04.25	Borna Coric - Ethan Quinn	1:2 ✺
12.04.25	Mattia Bellucci - Borna Coric	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
09.04.25	Borna Coric - Zsombor Piros	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWLWL

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