Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Miami (USA), hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 22 March 2025, Saturday


	Matteo Arnaldi		Tomas Machac

	1	2
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.6	1.48	Watch
	2.75	1.46	Watch
	2.66	1.47	Watch
	2.6	1.5	Watch
	2.71	1.47	Watch
	2.75	1.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↓ (2.78)	1.47 ↑ (1.45)

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
35.3%

Tomas Machac
64.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

65.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.7%

68.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Tomas Machac has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tomas Machac than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Matteo Arnaldi - Tomas Machac Predictions

Users Predictions: Tomas Machac will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 35. Machac is ranked ATP: 21.

Recent matches Arnaldi is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Machac is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Machac could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Machac will have a small advantage in this match.

Our prediction for today's Machac to win the game is with odds 1.53.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Arnaldi won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 0:4 (average 0:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Miami
20.03.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Yibing Wu	2:1 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
10.03.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
08.03.25	Andrey Rublev - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
06.03.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Aleksandar Kovacevic	2:1 ✺
ATP Acapulco
25.02.25	Alexander Zverev - Matteo Arnaldi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WLWWL
- Tomas Machac
ATP Indian Wells
07.03.25	Tomas Machac - Yosuke Watanuki	Machac T. retired ✺
ATP Acapulco
01.03.25	Tomas Machac - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0 ✺
28.02.25	Tomas Machac - Brandon Nakashima	2:1 ✺
27.02.25	Learner Tien - Tomas Machac	0:2 ✺
26.02.25	Daniel Altmaier - Tomas Machac	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 ?WWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roma
09.05.24	Tomas Machac - Matteo Arnaldi	Canceled
ATP Miami
26.03.24	Tomas Machac - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0
ATP Dubai
26.02.23	Tomas Machac - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0

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