Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Barcelona, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 14 April 2025, Monday


	Matteo Arnaldi		Sebastian Korda

	1	2
	1.8	2	Watch
	1.85	1.91	Watch
	1.75	2	Watch
	1.76	2.04	Watch
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	1.82	2.02	Watch
	1.75	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (1.91)	1.98 ↑ (1.91)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
52.3%

Sebastian Korda
47.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

52.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Sebastian Korda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Korda than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
36.8%	0%	63.2%

Matteo Arnaldi - Sebastian Korda Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Arnaldi will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). Korda will win (votes: 12 - 63.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Korda: 41.5% – 84.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Arnaldi (votes: 3 - 30%). Korda (votes: 7 - 70%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 Games - Arnaldi (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 22 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Arnaldi (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Korda (votes: 7 - 63.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 40. Korda is ranked ATP: 24.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Korda could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both players.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Monte Carlo
06.04.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Richard Gasquet	1:2 ✺
ATP Miami
22.03.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Tomas Machac	1:2 ✺
20.03.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Yibing Wu	2:1 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
10.03.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Brandon Nakashima	0:2 ✺
08.03.25	Andrey Rublev - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LLWLW
- Sebastian Korda
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.25	Jiri Lehecka - Sebastian Korda	2:0 ✺
ATP Miami
27.03.25	Sebastian Korda - Novak Djokovic	0:2 ✺
25.03.25	Gael Monfils - Sebastian Korda	1:2 ✺
23.03.25	Sebastian Korda - Stefanos Tsitsipas	2:0 ✺
21.03.25	Sebastian Korda - Eliot Spizzirri	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LLWWW

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