Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: ROME (ITALY), CLAY - 1/64-FINALS

Date: 11 May 2023, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Croatia	SportKlub
Czech-republic	Eurosport 2
Denmark	TV2 Sport X
Finland	Discovery+
France	Eurosport 2
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub
Sweden	Discovery+, Eurosport 2
Ukraine	Setanta Sports


	Matteo Arnaldi		Diego Sebastian Schwartzman

	1	2
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.6	2.3
	1.61	2.32
	1.61	2.31
	1.64	2.39
	1.62	2.3	Watch
	1.59	2.36	Watch
	1.61	2.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.75)	2.34 ↑ (1.99)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
59.3%

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman
40.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

46.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

46.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matteo Arnaldi's performance.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matteo Arnaldi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Diego Sebastian Schwartzman than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Diego Sebastian Schwartzman could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Matteo Arnaldi - Diego Sebastian Schwartzman Predictions

Users Predictions: 60 users predict this event. Arnaldi will win (votes: 45 - 75%). Schwartzman will win (votes: 15 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arnaldi: 64% – 86%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Arnaldi is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Schwartzman is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Schwartzman could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Arnaldi will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Madrid
30.04.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Jaume Munar	1:2 ✺
28.04.23	Casper Ruud - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
26.04.23	Benoit Paire - Matteo Arnaldi	1:2 ✺
25.04.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Arthur Fils	2:1 ✺
24.04.23	Matteo Arnaldi - Filip Misolic	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LWWWW
- Diego Sebastian Schwartzman
ATP Challenger
02.05.23	Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - Mattia Bellucci	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
26.04.23	Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - Hugo Grenier	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
19.04.23	Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - Jannik Sinner	0:2 ✺
18.04.23	Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - Yibing Wu	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
12.04.23	Diego Sebastian Schwartzman - Jannik Sinner	Schwartzman D. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LLLW?

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