Match Info

Date: 16 October 2022, Sunday


	Matteo Arnaldi		Mattia Bellucci

	1	2
	1.5	2.5	Watch
	1.5	2.4
	1.57	2.38
	1.49	2.39
	1.56	2.47
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.51	2.49	Watch
	1.5	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.73)	2.44 ↑ (1.96)

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
61.5%

Mattia Bellucci
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.1%

46.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.2%

49.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matteo Arnaldi's performance.

Mattia Bellucci has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mattia Bellucci might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-11.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matteo Arnaldi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mattia Bellucci than the current prediction. (+11.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mattia Bellucci could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.9%	0%	16.1%

Matteo Arnaldi - Mattia Bellucci Predictions

Users Predictions: Matteo Arnaldi will win (26 of 31 users predict this - 83.87%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.92% – 96.82%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Arnaldi is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Bellucci is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Arnaldi could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Arnaldi will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Challenger
15.10.22	Matteo Arnaldi - Ugo Humbert	2:0 ✺
14.10.22	Matteo Arnaldi - Gregoire Barrere	2:0 ✺
13.10.22	Matteo Arnaldi - Harold Mayot	2:0 ✺
11.10.22	Alexander Shevchenko - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
11.10.22	Hugo Gaston - Matteo Arnaldi	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWWW?
- Mattia Bellucci
ATP Challenger
15.10.22	Jurij Rodionov - Mattia Bellucci	1:2 ✺
14.10.22	Salvatore Caruso - Mattia Bellucci	0:2 ✺
13.10.22	Mattia Bellucci - Hugo Grenier	2:0 ✺
12.10.22	Louis Wessels - Mattia Bellucci	0:2 ✺
11.10.22	Mattia Bellucci - Elliot Benchetrit	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WWWWW

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