Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Geneva, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 22 May 2025, Thursday


	Matteo Arnaldi		Novak Djokovic

	1	2
	3.75	1.29	Watch
	3.4	1.3	Watch
	3.6	1.25	Watch
	3.74	1.32
	3.34	1.33	Watch
	3.6	1.29	Watch
	3.48	1.31	Watch
	3.6	1.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.56 ↑ (2.85)	1.29 ↓ (1.43)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
26.6%

Novak Djokovic
73.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

66.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

65.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Matteo Arnaldi's form might have worsened.

Novak Djokovic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Novak Djokovic's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Matteo Arnaldi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Novak Djokovic than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Novak Djokovic, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.6%	0%	82.4%

Matteo Arnaldi - Novak Djokovic Predictions

Users Predictions: Novak Djokovic will win (14 of 17 users predict this - 82.35%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.23% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Novak Djokovic will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 39. Djokovic is ranked ATP: 6.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Arnaldi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Djokovic is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Arnaldi won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Geneva
21.05.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Fabian Marozsan	2:0 ✺
19.05.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Hugo Gaston	2:1 ✺
ATP Roma
08.05.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Roberto Bautista-Agut	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
01.05.25	Jack Draper - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
30.04.25	Francis Tiafoe - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWLLW
- Novak Djokovic
ATP Geneva
21.05.25	Marton Fucsovics - Novak Djokovic	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
26.04.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Novak Djokovic	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.25	Novak Djokovic - Alejandro Tabilo	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
30.03.25	Jakub Mensik - Novak Djokovic	2:0 ✺
28.03.25	Novak Djokovic - Grigor Dimitrov	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Madrid
26.04.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Novak Djokovic	2:0

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