Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 1 May 2025, Thursday


	Jack Draper		Matteo Arnaldi

	1	2
	1.3	3.5	Watch
	1.28	3.7	Watch
	1.3	3.6	Watch
	1.3	3.89
	1.29	3.59	Watch
	1.3	3.5	Watch
	1.3	3.61	Watch
	1.3	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.33)	3.62 ↑ (3.33)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jack Draper
73.7%

Matteo Arnaldi
26.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.4%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.7%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jack Draper has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Matteo Arnaldi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jack Draper than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	0%	41.7%

Jack Draper - Matteo Arnaldi Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Draper will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Arnaldi will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Draper: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Draper (votes: 2 - 50%). Arnaldi (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Arnaldi (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +4 Games - Arnaldi (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Draper (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Arnaldi (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Draper is ranked ATP: 6. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 44.

Right now, both players are showing solid form.

Arnaldi could have physical problems compared to their opponent - in recent days, they have played more matches than their opponents.

In this match, Draper is a favorite.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jack Draper
ATP Madrid
30.04.25	Jack Draper - Tommy Paul	2:0 ✺
29.04.25	Jack Draper - Matteo Berrettini	Berrettini M. retired ✺
26.04.25	Jack Draper - Tallon Griekspoor	2:0 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
10.04.25	Jack Draper - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	1:2 ✺
08.04.25	Jack Draper - Marcos Giron	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 W?WLW
- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Madrid
30.04.25	Francis Tiafoe - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
28.04.25	Damir Dzumhur - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
26.04.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Novak Djokovic	2:0 ✺
24.04.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Borna Coric	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
14.04.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Sebastian Korda	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WWWWL

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