Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 8 May 2025, Thursday


	Matteo Arnaldi		Roberto Bautista-Agut

	1	2
	1.25	4	Watch
	1.28	3.6	Watch
	1.3	3.55	Watch
	1.23	4.55
	1.28	3.58	Watch
	1.3	3.5	Watch
	1.29	3.74	Watch
	1.3	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↓ (1.41)	3.76 ↑ (2.97)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matteo Arnaldi
74.6%

Roberto Bautista-Agut
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.8%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.9%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Matteo Arnaldi's performance.

Roberto Bautista-Agut has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Roberto Bautista-Agut might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roberto Bautista-Agut than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Matteo Arnaldi - Roberto Bautista Agut Predictions

Users Predictions: Matteo Arnaldi will win (16 of 20 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.47% – 97.53%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Matteo Arnaldi will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 37. Bautista-Agut is ranked ATP: 56.

Arnaldi is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Bautista-Agut's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Bautista-Agut may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Arnaldi is the team to beat.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Arnaldi
ATP Madrid
01.05.25	Jack Draper - Matteo Arnaldi	2:0 ✺
30.04.25	Francis Tiafoe - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
28.04.25	Damir Dzumhur - Matteo Arnaldi	0:2 ✺
26.04.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Novak Djokovic	2:0 ✺
24.04.25	Matteo Arnaldi - Borna Coric	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 LWWWW
- Roberto Bautista-Agut
ATP Madrid
25.04.25	Alexander Zverev - Roberto Bautista-Agut	2:0 ✺
23.04.25	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Jaume Munar	2:1 ✺
ATP Munich
15.04.25	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Botic Van De Zandschulp	1:2 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
09.04.25	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
08.04.25	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Brandon Nakashima	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWLLW

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