Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Indian Wells (USA), hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 6 March 2025, Thursday


	Matteo Gigante		Sebastian Baez

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.15	1.67
	2.11	1.74	Watch
	2.04	1.84
	2.03	1.77	Watch
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.12	1.73	Watch
	2.11	1.74
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.11)	1.74 ↑ (1.61)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Matteo Gigante
45.4%

Sebastian Baez
54.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

56.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

62.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matteo Gigante has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Gigante than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Matteo Gigante that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sebastian Baez could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	0%	37.5%

Matteo Gigante - Sebastian Baez Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Gigante will win (votes: 19 - 63.3%). Baez will win (votes: 11 - 36.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gigante: 46.1% – 80.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Preview

Gigante is ranked ATP: 217. Baez is ranked ATP: 34.

Recent matches Gigante is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Baez is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Baez could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two players are almost the same in this match.

Our prediction for today's Baez to win the game is with odds 1.7.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matteo Gigante
ATP Indian Wells
04.03.25	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Matteo Gigante	0:2 ✺
03.03.25	Matteo Gigante - Mitchell Krueger	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
26.02.25	Matteo Gigante - Mackenzie McDonald	0:2 ✺
25.02.25	Matteo Gigante - Rohan Murali	2:0 ✺
ATP Marseille
09.02.25	Matteo Gigante - Hugo Grenier	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWLWL
- Sebastian Baez
ATP Santiago
02.03.25	Laslo Djere - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
01.03.25	Sebastian Baez - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:1 ✺
28.02.25	Damir Dzumhur - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
27.02.25	Francisco Comesana - Sebastian Baez	1:2 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
23.02.25	Alexandre Muller - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 LWWWW

Upcoming Matches