Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), clay - Final

Date: 23 February 2025, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Colombia	ESPN
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 2
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	Eurosport 2
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top event
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 6
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4, Ziggo Sport
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	Sport TV5
Romania	Digi Sport 3, Prima Sport 3
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Tennis


	Alexandre Muller		Sebastian Baez

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.1	1.7	Watch
	2.17	1.74
	2.1	1.76	Watch
	2.1	1.73	Watch
	2.02	1.82	Watch
	2.1	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.3)	1.74 ↑ (1.52)

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexandre Muller
45.3%

Sebastian Baez
54.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

60.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

61.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexandre Muller has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alexandre Muller's performance.

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sebastian Baez might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alexandre Muller than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alexandre Muller that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sebastian Baez could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Alexandre Muller - Sebastian Baez Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Muller will win (votes: 12 - 66.7%). Baez will win (votes: 6 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Muller: 44.9% – 88.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Muller is ranked ATP: 60. Baez is ranked ATP: 31.

At the moment players are feeling good and ready to play.

Baez could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexandre Muller
ATP Rio de Janeiro
22.02.25	Francisco Comesana - Alexandre Muller	1:2 ✺
21.02.25	Francisco Cerundolo - Alexandre Muller	0:2 ✺
20.02.25	Alexandre Muller - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	2:0 ✺
18.02.25	Joao Fonseca - Alexandre Muller	0:2 ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
10.02.25	Alexandre Muller - Laslo Djere	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.2 WWWWL
- Sebastian Baez
ATP Rio de Janeiro
22.02.25	Sebastian Baez - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:1 ✺
21.02.25	Sebastian Baez - Chun Hsin Tseng	2:0 ✺
19.02.25	Sebastian Baez - Mariano Navone	2:1 ✺
18.02.25	Sebastian Baez - Sumit Nagal	Canceled ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
12.02.25	Sebastian Baez - Thiago Seyboth Wild	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWW?L

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