Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Hamburg, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 20 May 2025, Tuesday


	Sebastian Baez		Camilo Ugo Carabelli

	1	2
	1.57	2.38	Watch
	1.62	2.25
	1.58	2.34	Watch
	1.63	2.4
	1.48	2.61	Watch
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.61	2.33	Watch
	1.58	2.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↑ (1.5)	2.36 ↓ (2.61)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Baez
59.7%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
40.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.5%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.1%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Sebastian Baez - Camilo Ugo Carabelli Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 Games - Baez (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Sebastian Baez will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sebastian Baez will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Baez (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Baez is ranked ATP: 33. Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 60.

Baez is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ugo Carabelli's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Ugo Carabelli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Baez is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Baez won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 2:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Sebastian Baez - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 63.5%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Challenger
15.05.25	Rinky Hijikata - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
ATP Roma
09.05.25	Vit Kopriva - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
ATP Madrid
26.04.25	Sebastian Baez - Damir Dzumhur	1:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
16.04.25	Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
15.04.25	Sebastian Baez - Damir Dzumhur	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLLLW
- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Challenger
17.05.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Bu Yunchaokete	0:2 ✺
16.05.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Chun Hsin Tseng	2:1 ✺
15.05.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Luca Nardi	2:0 ✺
14.05.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Otto Virtanen	2:0 ✺
ATP Roma
09.05.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Alexander Zverev	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Santiago
01.03.25	Sebastian Baez - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:1
ATP Rio de Janeiro
22.02.25	Sebastian Baez - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:1
ATP Buenos Aires
11.02.25	Sebastian Baez - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0
ATP Challenger
19.03.21	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Sebastian Baez	0:2

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