Match Info

CHALLENGER WOMEN - SINGLES: Tolentino, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 21 September 2026, Monday


	Mia Ristic		Arantxa Rus

	1	2
	1.62	2.2	Watch
	1.65	2.15
	1.63	2.15	Watch
	1.66	2.11	Watch
	1.6	2.19
	1.6	2.2	Watch
	1.61	2.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.6)	2.17 ↓ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mia Ristic
57.2%

Arantxa Rus
42.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mia Ristic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Arantxa Rus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mia Ristic than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arantxa Rus than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Mia Ristic - Arantxa Rus Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ristic (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Ristic is ranked WTA: 184., and Rus is ranked WTA: 220..

Both players have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Ristic may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Ristic holding a narrow advantage.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Last Results with these Odds

Mia Ristic - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 57.89%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mia Ristic
ATP Challenger
18.09.26	Mona Barthel - Mia Ristic	2:0 ✺
16.09.26	Miriam Bianca Bulgaru - Mia Ristic	0:2 ✺
15.09.26	Martina Colmegna - Mia Ristic	0:2 ✺
07.09.26	Mia Ristic - Lina Gjorcheska	0:2 ✺
WTA US Open
28.08.26	Mia Ristic - Himeno Sakatsume	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LWWLL
- Arantxa Rus
ATP Challenger
14.09.26	Arantxa Rus - Samira De Stefano	1:2 ✺
WTA US Open
01.09.26	Arantxa Rus - Leolia Jeanjean	0:2 ✺
28.08.26	Susan Bandecchi - Arantxa Rus	1:2 ✺
26.08.26	Arantxa Rus - Suzan Lamens	2:0 ✺
25.08.26	Arantxa Rus - Teodora Kostovic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 LLWWW

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