Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Sassuolo, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 17 June 2025, Tuesday


	Michael Geerts		Francesco Maestrelli

	1	2
	2.38	1.53	Watch
	2.5	1.48	Watch
			Watch
	2.58	1.52
			Watch
	2.38	1.53	Watch
	2.48	1.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (1.83)	1.51 ↓ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Michael Geerts
38%

Francesco Maestrelli
62%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52%

48%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Michael Geerts has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Michael Geerts's form might have worsened.

Francesco Maestrelli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Francesco Maestrelli's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Michael Geerts than the current prediction. (+14%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Michael Geerts, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francesco Maestrelli than the current prediction. (-14%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Francesco Maestrelli, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	0%	90.9%

Michael Geerts - Francesco Maestrelli Predictions

Users Predictions: Francesco Maestrelli will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Francesco Maestrelli will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Preview

Geerts is ranked ATP: 272. Maestrelli is ranked ATP: 248.

Geerts has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Maestrelli's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Geerts won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Michael Geerts - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 23% of matches with these odds.

Francesco Maestrelli - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 35% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Michael Geerts
ATP Challenger
10.06.25	Michael Geerts - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
22.05.25	Mili Poljicak - Michael Geerts	2:0 ✺
21.05.25	Michael Geerts - Oriol Roca Batalla	2:1 ✺
20.05.25	Maxim Mrva - Michael Geerts	0:2 ✺
13.05.25	Gregoire Barrere - Michael Geerts	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LLWWL
- Francesco Maestrelli
ATP Challenger
10.06.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Francesco Passaro	0:2 ✺
02.06.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Max Wiskandt	0:2 ✺
01.06.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Vladyslav Orlov	2:0 ✺
26.05.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Lorenzo Carboni	0:2 ✺
15.05.25	Zsombor Piros - Francesco Maestrelli	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
13.05.22	Michael Geerts - Francesco Maestrelli	2:1

Michael Geerts - Francesco Maestrelli: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide