Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lyon, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 10 June 2025, Tuesday


	Michael Geerts		Arthur Gea

	1	2
	2.38	1.53
	2.5	1.48
	2.44	1.49	Watch
	2.53	1.48	Watch
	2.38	1.53	Watch
	2.48	1.5	Watch
	2.38	1.53
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (2.15)	1.51 ↓ (1.64)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Michael Geerts
38.1%

Arthur Gea
61.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

56.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

56%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Michael Geerts has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Michael Geerts's form might have worsened.

Arthur Gea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arthur Gea's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Michael Geerts than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Michael Geerts, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arthur Gea than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Arthur Gea, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Michael Geerts - Arthur Gea Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Geerts will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Gea will win (votes: 3 - 60%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Gea (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Geerts is ranked ATP: 274. Gea is ranked ATP: 309.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Gea may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Michael Geerts
ATP Challenger
22.05.25	Mili Poljicak - Michael Geerts	2:0 ✺
21.05.25	Michael Geerts - Oriol Roca Batalla	2:1 ✺
20.05.25	Maxim Mrva - Michael Geerts	0:2 ✺
13.05.25	Gregoire Barrere - Michael Geerts	2:0 ✺
12.05.25	Ryan Seggerman - Michael Geerts	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LWWLW
- Arthur Gea
ITF Tournaments
04.06.25	Arthur Gea - Raphael Perot	0:2 ✺
03.06.25	Arthur Gea - Lucas Marionneau	2:0 ✺
ATP Roland Garros
22.05.25	Titouan Droguet - Arthur Gea	2:1 ✺
20.05.25	Arthur Gea - Alexander Blockx	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.05.25	Bernabe Zapata Miralles - Arthur Gea	Gea A. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWLW?

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