Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Costa do Sauipe - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 20 October 2025, Monday


	Miguel Tobon		Gonzalo Villanueva

	1	2
			Watch
			Watch
	2.34	1.58
	2.23	1.57	Watch
	2.22	1.62	Watch
	2.2	1.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (2.03)	1.59 ↓ (1.66)

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Miguel Tobon
41.5%

Gonzalo Villanueva
58.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

55%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

55.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Miguel Tobon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Gonzalo Villanueva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Miguel Tobon than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gonzalo Villanueva than the current prediction. (-3%)

Miguel Tobon - Gonzalo Villanueva Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Tobon is ranked ATP: 599. Villanueva is ranked ATP: 351.

Tobon is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Villanueva's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Tobon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Villanueva could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Gonzalo Villanueva - the odds 1.66 are the expected chance of winning is 55.01%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Miguel Tobon
ATP Challenger
19.10.25	Facundo Diaz Acosta - Miguel Tobon	Canceled ✺
14.10.25	Miguel Tobon - Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco	1:2 ✺
13.10.25	Miguel Tobon - Bruno Kuzuhara	2:0 ✺
06.10.25	Matias Soto - Miguel Tobon	2:0 ✺
01.09.25	Peter Makk - Miguel Tobon	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 ?LWLL
- Gonzalo Villanueva
ATP Challenger
19.10.25	Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos - Gonzalo Villanueva	0:2 ✺
06.10.25	Gonzalo Villanueva - Juan Pablo Ficovich	0:2 ✺
30.09.25	Gonzalo Villanueva - Franco Roncadelli	0:2 ✺
29.09.25	Gonzalo Villanueva - Thomas Faurel	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Gonzalo Villanueva - Bastian Malla	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLLWW

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