Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Wimbledon, grass - 1/16-finals

Date: 4 July 2025, Friday

Location: All England Club (London)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	Max, Max
Bulgaria	Max
Czech-republic	Max
Finland	Max
Hungary	Max
Netherlands	Max
Norway	MAX
Romania	Max
Sweden	Max


	Nicolas Jarry		Joao Fonseca

	1	2
	2.75	1.44
	2.8	1.42
	2.7	1.44	Watch
	3.09	1.42
			Watch
	2.75	1.44
	2.88	1.49	Watch
	2.75	1.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.82 ↑ (2.62)	1.44 ↓ (1.52)

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nicolas Jarry
33.8%

Joao Fonseca
66.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

63.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.1%

63.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nicolas Jarry has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Joao Fonseca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nicolas Jarry than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Joao Fonseca than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
34.2%	0%	65.8%

Nicolas Jarry - Joao Fonseca Predictions

Users Predictions: 37 users predict this event. Jarry will win (votes: 13 - 35.1%). Fonseca will win (votes: 24 - 64.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fonseca: 49.5% – 80.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Jarry (votes: 8 - 47.1%). Fonseca (votes: 9 - 52.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 40.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 10.5 Games, 1st Set - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 Sets - Fonseca (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Jarry (votes: 8 - 44.4%). Fonseca (votes: 10 - 55.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Jarry is ranked ATP: 143. Fonseca is ranked ATP: 54.

Jarry has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Fonseca has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Jarry may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Fonseca could have a small edge in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Joao Fonseca - the odds 1.52 are the expected chance of winning is 63.32%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nicolas Jarry
ATP Wimbledon
02.07.25	Nicolas Jarry - Learner Tien	3:0 ✺
30.06.25	Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune - Nicolas Jarry	2:3 ✺
26.06.25	Lukas Klein - Nicolas Jarry	0:3 ✺
25.06.25	Jozef Kovalik - Nicolas Jarry	0:2 ✺
23.06.25	Pavel Kotov - Nicolas Jarry	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 WWWWW
- Joao Fonseca
ATP Wimbledon
02.07.25	Joao Fonseca - Jenson Brooksby	3:1 ✺
30.06.25	Jacob Fearnley - Joao Fonseca	0:3 ✺
ATP Eastbourne
26.06.25	Taylor Harry Fritz - Joao Fonseca	2:1 ✺
23.06.25	Zizou Bergs - Joao Fonseca	1:2 ✺
ATP Halle
17.06.25	Joao Fonseca - Flavio Cobolli	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLWL

Nicolas Jarry - Joao Fonseca: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide