Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday


	Nicolas Jarry		Jurij Rodionov

	1	2
			Watch
			Watch
	1.53	2.33	Watch
	1.54	2.64
	1.48	2.59	Watch
	1.53	2.38	Watch
	1.51	2.39	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↑ (1.48)	2.47 ↑ (2.46)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nicolas Jarry
61.9%

Jurij Rodionov
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.5%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nicolas Jarry has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Jurij Rodionov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nicolas Jarry than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jurij Rodionov than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Nicolas Jarry - Jurij Rodionov Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Rodionov (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Jarry is ranked ATP: 156. Rodionov is ranked ATP: 176.

Jarry has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Rodionov is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Jarry may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Jarry will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Jarry won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nicolas Jarry
ATP Challenger
10.04.26	Nicolas Jarry - Nerman Fatic	2:0 ✺
09.04.26	Nicolas Jarry - Dominic Stephan Stricker	2:0 ✺
07.04.26	Nicolas Jarry - Miguel Damas	Damas M. Retired ✺
ATP Miami
16.03.26	Mattia Bellucci - Nicolas Jarry	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
10.03.26	Nicolas Jarry - Adam Walton	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WW?LL
- Jurij Rodionov
ATP Challenger
10.04.26	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo - Jurij Rodionov	0:2 ✺
08.04.26	Jurij Rodionov - Sergi Perez Contri	2:1 ✺
07.04.26	Federico Cina - Jurij Rodionov	0:2 ✺
ATP Bucharest
30.03.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Jurij Rodionov	2:1 ✺
30.03.26	George Loffhagen - Jurij Rodionov	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Davis Cup World Group
01.02.19	Jurij Rodionov - Nicolas Jarry	0:2

Nicolas Jarry - Jurij Rodionov: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide