Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 7 April 2026, Tuesday


	Nicolas Jarry		Miguel Damas

	1	2
			Watch
	1.44	2.6
	1.4	2.65	Watch
	1.43	3.01
	1.41	2.7	Watch
	1.44	2.63
	1.4	2.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.54)	2.72 ↑ (2.28)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nicolas Jarry
65.7%

Miguel Damas
34.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.7%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.7%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nicolas Jarry has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nicolas Jarry's performance.

Miguel Damas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Miguel Damas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nicolas Jarry than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Miguel Damas than the current prediction. (+1%)

Nicolas Jarry - Miguel Damas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Jarry is ranked ATP: 154. Damas is ranked ATP: 274.

Jarry has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Damas is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Damas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Jarry could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Miguel Damas - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 40.31%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nicolas Jarry
ATP Miami
16.03.26	Mattia Bellucci - Nicolas Jarry	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
10.03.26	Nicolas Jarry - Adam Walton	0:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
02.03.26	Nicolas Jarry - Francesco Maestrelli	1:2 ✺
ATP Santiago
23.02.26	Nicolas Jarry - Dino Prizmic	1:2 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
14.02.26	Jaime Faria - Nicolas Jarry	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Miguel Damas
ATP Challenger
03.04.26	Miguel Damas - Daniel Rincon	1:2 ✺
01.04.26	Miguel Damas - Abedallah Shelbayh	2:1 ✺
24.03.26	Daniel Altmaier - Miguel Damas	2:0 ✺
16.03.26	Miguel Damas - Jan Choinski	1:2 ✺
05.03.26	Miguel Damas - Thiago Monteiro	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LWLLL

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