Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lexington, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 28 July 2025, Monday


	Nicolas Mejia		August Holmgren

	1	2
	3.25	1.33	Watch
	2.95	1.35
	3	1.34	Watch
	3	1.4
	2.95	1.38	Watch
	3	1.36	Watch
	2.99	1.36	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↑ (2.62)	1.36 ↓ (1.44)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nicolas Mejia
31.1%

August Holmgren
68.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

64.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.2%

65.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nicolas Mejia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

August Holmgren has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nicolas Mejia than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for August Holmgren than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	0%	42.9%

Nicolas Mejia - August Holmgren Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Mejia will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Holmgren will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mejia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Mejia is ranked ATP: 240. Holmgren is ranked ATP: 146.

Recent performances by Mejia have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Holmgren is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Holmgren may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Holmgren is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Holmgren will win today's game, with odds of 1.4.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nicolas Mejia
ATP Challenger
22.07.25	Nicolas Mejia - Yuta Shimizu	0:2 ✺
ATP Los Cabos
15.07.25	Nicolas Mejia - Nishesh Basavareddy	0:2 ✺
13.07.25	Murphy Cassone - Nicolas Mejia	0:2 ✺
12.07.25	Isaiah Strode - Nicolas Mejia	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
08.07.25	Nicolas Mejia - Andres Andrade	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLWWL
- August Holmgren
ATP Challenger
24.07.25	Mark Lajal - August Holmgren	2:0 ✺
22.07.25	Garrett Johns - August Holmgren	0:2 ✺
20.07.25	August Holmgren - Liam Draxl	2:0 ✺
19.07.25	Eliot Spizzirri - August Holmgren	0:2 ✺
18.07.25	Yuta Shimizu - August Holmgren	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LWWWW

Nicolas Mejia - August Holmgren: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide