Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Gwangju, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 April 2026, Thursday


	Yuta Shimizu		August Holmgren

	1	2
			Watch
	2.7	1.41
	2.97	1.43
	2.7	1.4	Watch
	2.63	1.44	Watch
	2.73	1.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↑ (2.4)	1.42 ↓ (1.5)

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yuta Shimizu
34%

August Holmgren
66%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

61.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

61.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yuta Shimizu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

August Holmgren has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yuta Shimizu than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for August Holmgren than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

Yuta Shimizu - August Holmgren Predictions

Users Predictions: August Holmgren will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Shimizu is ranked ATP: 390. Holmgren is ranked ATP: 185.

Shimizu has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Holmgren is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Holmgren may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Holmgren is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Holmgren will win today's game, with odds of 1.5.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Shimizu won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

August Holmgren - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 61.54%, but this team recently wins 91% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yuta Shimizu
ATP Challenger
22.04.26	Sho Shimabukuro - Yuta Shimizu	1:2 ✺
20.04.26	Yuta Shimizu - Yasutaka Uchiyama	Uchiyama Y. Retired ✺
19.04.26	Taro Daniel - Yuta Shimizu	2:0 ✺
19.04.26	Jake Delaney - Yuta Shimizu	Canceled ✺
13.04.26	Yuta Shimizu - Marat Sharipov	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 W?L?L
- August Holmgren
ATP Challenger
22.04.26	Alexis Galarneau - August Holmgren	0:2 ✺
21.04.26	August Holmgren - Bu Yunchaokete	2:0 ✺
18.04.26	August Holmgren - Liam Broady	1:2 ✺
16.04.26	August Holmgren - Alexis Galarneau	2:0 ✺
14.04.26	Kasidit Samrej - August Holmgren	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
18.07.25	Yuta Shimizu - August Holmgren	1:2

Yuta Shimizu - August Holmgren: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide