Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Canberra, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 5 January 2026, Monday


	Nicolas Mejia		Justin Engel

	1	2
	2.1	1.67	Watch
	2.12	1.64	Watch
	2.15	1.62	Watch
	2.1	1.67
	2.08	1.67	Watch
	2.12	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.6)	1.66 ↑ (1.43)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nicolas Mejia
43.9%

Justin Engel
56.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

64.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

64.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nicolas Mejia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nicolas Mejia's performance.

Justin Engel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Justin Engel might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nicolas Mejia than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nicolas Mejia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Justin Engel than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Justin Engel could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Nicolas Mejia - Justin Engel Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Mejia will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Games - Mejia (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Nicolas Mejia will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Mejia (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Mejia is ranked ATP: 168. Engel is ranked ATP: 180.

Mejia is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Engel's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Mejia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Engel is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Mejia will win today's game, with odds of 2.6.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nicolas Mejia
ATP Challenger
04.01.26	Nicolas Mejia - Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg	2:1 ✺
03.01.26	Nicolas Mejia - Hady Habib	2:0 ✺
30.11.25	Juan Sebastian Gomez - Nicolas Mejia	0:2 ✺
29.11.25	Facundo Mena - Nicolas Mejia	1:2 ✺
28.11.25	Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio - Nicolas Mejia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WWWWW
- Justin Engel
ATP Next Gen Finals
19.12.25	Nishesh Basavareddy - Justin Engel	3:0 ✺
18.12.25	Dino Prizmic - Justin Engel	3:1 ✺
17.12.25	Alexander Blockx - Justin Engel	3:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
22.11.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Justin Engel	2:0 ✺
21.11.25	Justin Engel - Andrea Guerrieri	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLLW

Nicolas Mejia - Justin Engel: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide