Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Bergamo, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday


	Francesco Maestrelli		Justin Engel

	1	2
	1.73	2	Watch
			Watch
	1.8	1.91	Watch
	1.85	1.85	Watch
			Watch
	1.81	1.87	Watch
	1.84	1.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2.15)	1.89 ↑ (1.62)

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francesco Maestrelli
51.1%

Justin Engel
48.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43%

57%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

57.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francesco Maestrelli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Francesco Maestrelli's performance.

Justin Engel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Justin Engel might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francesco Maestrelli than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Francesco Maestrelli that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Justin Engel than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Justin Engel could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	0%	80%

Francesco Maestrelli - Justin Engel Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 10.5 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 Games - Maestrelli (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Justin Engel will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Justin Engel will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Maestrelli (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Engel (votes: 6 - 85.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Maestrelli is ranked ATP: 157. Engel is ranked ATP: 195.

Maestrelli is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Engel's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Maestrelli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Maestrelli won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francesco Maestrelli
ATP Challenger
21.11.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Stefano Napolitano	2:0 ✺
20.11.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Buvaysar Gadamauri	2:0 ✺
18.11.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Emil Ruusuvuori	2:1 ✺
12.11.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Vit Kopriva	0:2 ✺
11.11.25	Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg - Francesco Maestrelli	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WWWLW
- Justin Engel
ATP Challenger
21.11.25	Justin Engel - Andrea Guerrieri	2:1 ✺
20.11.25	Mark Lajal - Justin Engel	Engel J. walkover ✺
18.11.25	Justin Engel - Hamish Stewart	Stewart H. retired ✺
04.11.25	Chris Rodesch - Justin Engel	2:1 ✺
26.10.25	Justin Engel - Federico Cina	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 W??LW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
06.08.25	Francesco Maestrelli - Justin Engel	2:0

Francesco Maestrelli - Justin Engel: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide