Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Santa Margherita di Pula 5, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 29 April 2025, Tuesday


	Oleksandr Ovcharenko		Andrey Chepelev

	1	2
			Watch
	1.28	3.25
	1.28	3.43
	1.28	3.46	Watch
	1.33	3.25
	1.29	3.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.41)	3.34 ↑ (2.75)

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oleksandr Ovcharenko
72.1%

Andrey Chepelev
27.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.1%

33.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.1%

34.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oleksandr Ovcharenko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Oleksandr Ovcharenko's performance.

Andrey Chepelev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Andrey Chepelev might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Oleksandr Ovcharenko than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Oleksandr Ovcharenko that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Andrey Chepelev than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Andrey Chepelev could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Oleksandr Ovcharenko - Andrey Chepelev Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Ovcharenko is ranked ATP: 351. Chepelev is ranked ATP: 638.

Both players are now playing unstable.

Ovcharenko could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Ovcharenko is a favorite.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oleksandr Ovcharenko
ATP Challenger
01.04.25	Khumoun Sultanov - Oleksandr Ovcharenko	2:1 ✺
24.03.25	Elias Ymer - Oleksandr Ovcharenko	2:1 ✺
23.03.25	Mariano Tammaro - Oleksandr Ovcharenko	0:2 ✺
17.03.25	Oleksandr Ovcharenko - Luka Mikrut	0:2 ✺
16.03.25	Oleksandr Ovcharenko - Alex Molcan	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLWLW
- Andrey Chepelev
ITF Tournaments
19.04.25	Andrey Chepelev - Nicholas David Ionel	0:2 ✺
18.04.25	Gabriele Pennaforti - Andrey Chepelev	0:2 ✺
14.04.25	Andrey Chepelev - Lorenzo Carboni	2:0 ✺
23.03.25	Andrey Chepelev - Svyatoslav Gulin	0:2 ✺
22.03.25	Andrey Chepelev - Thomas Faurel	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LWWLW

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