Match Info

Date: 29 August 2022, Monday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York)


	Pablo Carreno-Busta		Dominic Thiem

	1	2
	1.22	4.33	Watch
	1.2	4.33
	1.2	4.6
	1.23	4.3
	1.22	4.89
	1.25	4	Watch
	1.2	4.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.22 ↓ (1.32)	4.44 ↑ (3.72)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pablo Carreno-Busta
78.5%

Dominic Thiem
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

73.8%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.1%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pablo Carreno-Busta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Dominic Thiem has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pablo Carreno-Busta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dominic Thiem than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dominic Thiem could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.6%	0%	16.4%

Pablo Carreno Busta - Dominic Thiem Predictions

Users Predictions: Pablo Carreno-Busta will win (61 of 73 users predict this - 83.56%).
Confidence interval (95%): 75.06% – 92.06%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Carreno Busta won 0.

Carreno Busta is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Thiem is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Carreno Busta could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Carreno Busta is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Carreno Busta won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 4-15.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Cincinnati
16.08.22	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Miomir Kecmanovic	1:2 ✺
ATP Montreal
14.08.22	Hubert Hurkacz - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
13.08.22	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Daniel Evans	2:1 ✺
12.08.22	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Jack Draper	2:0 ✺
11.08.22	Jannik Sinner - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 LWWWW
- Dominic Thiem
ATP Winston-Salem
24.08.22	Dominic Thiem - Jack Draper	0:2 ✺
23.08.22	Grigor Dimitrov - Dominic Thiem	Dimitrov G. retired ✺
22.08.22	Dominic Thiem - Jeffrey John Wolf	2:1 ✺
ATP Kitzbuhel
28.07.22	Dominic Thiem - Yannick Hanfmann	1:2 ✺
27.07.22	Sebastian Ofner - Dominic Thiem	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 L?WLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Vienna
25.10.19	Dominic Thiem - Pablo Carreno-Busta	Carreno-Busta P. retired
ATP Shanghai
09.10.19	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Dominic Thiem	0:2
Abu Dhabi Exhibition
30.12.17	Dominic Thiem - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0
ATP World Tour Finals
15.11.17	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Dominic Thiem	1:2
ATP Rio de Janeiro
26.02.17	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Dominic Thiem	0:2
ATP US Open
03.09.16	Dominic Thiem - Pablo Carreno-Busta	3:1
ATP Buenos Aires
09.02.16	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Dominic Thiem	1:2

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