Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Valencia, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 15 May 2026, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Slovakia	Arena sport 2


	Pablo Carreno-Busta		Jaume Munar

	1	2
	2.2	1.62	Watch
	2.15	1.63	Watch
	2.31	1.68
	2.26	1.61	Watch
	2.2	1.62
	2.18	1.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 ↑ (1.87)	1.63 ↓ (1.87)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pablo Carreno-Busta
42.3%

Jaume Munar
57.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

51.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pablo Carreno-Busta's form might have worsened.

Jaume Munar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jaume Munar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pablo Carreno-Busta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jaume Munar than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jaume Munar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.5%	0%	61.5%

Pablo Carreno Busta - Jaume Munar Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Carreno Busta will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). Munar will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Munar: 35% – 88%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 21 Games - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 91. Munar is ranked ATP: 38.

Carreno Busta is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Munar has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Munar may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Carreno Busta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Jaume Munar - the odds 1.87 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Challenger
14.05.26	Sebastian Baez - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
12.05.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Francisco Comesana	2:0 ✺
ATP Roma
06.05.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Alejandro Tabilo	0:2 ✺
05.05.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Stanislas Wawrinka	Carreno-Busta P. Walkover ✺
04.05.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Martin Damm	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWL?W
- Jaume Munar
ATP Challenger
14.05.26	Damir Dzumhur - Jaume Munar	0:2 ✺
ATP Roma
06.05.26	Matteo Arnaldi - Jaume Munar	2:1 ✺
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Jaume Munar - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
23.04.26	Jaume Munar - Alexander Shevchenko	2:0 ✺
ATP Barcelona
13.04.26	Jaume Munar - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Indian Wells
13.03.22	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Jaume Munar	1:2
ATP Marbella
11.04.21	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Jaume Munar	2:1

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