Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Valencia, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 12 May 2026, Tuesday


	Pablo Carreno-Busta		Francisco Comesana

	1	2
	1.8	1.91	Watch
	1.8	1.9	Watch
	1.77	2.13
	1.75	2.03	Watch
	1.73	2	Watch
	1.76	1.93	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.77 ↓ (1.79)	1.98 ↑ (1.9)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pablo Carreno-Busta
52.9%

Francisco Comesana
47.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

48.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47%

53%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pablo Carreno-Busta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Francisco Comesana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pablo Carreno-Busta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francisco Comesana than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Francisco Comesana could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Pablo Carreno Busta - Francisco Comesana Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 91. Comesana is ranked ATP: 114.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Carreno Busta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Carreno Busta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Roma
06.05.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Alejandro Tabilo	0:2 ✺
05.05.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Stanislas Wawrinka	Carreno-Busta P. Walkover ✺
04.05.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Martin Damm	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
23.04.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Marton Fucsovics	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 L?WLW
- Francisco Comesana
ATP Roma
06.05.26	Jan-Lennard Struff - Francisco Comesana	2:0 ✺
05.05.26	Francisco Comesana - Leandro Riedi	2:1 ✺
04.05.26	Francisco Comesana - Billy Harris	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
29.04.26	Ignacio Buse - Francisco Comesana	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
22.04.26	Tomas Machac - Francisco Comesana	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roland Garros
25.05.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Francisco Comesana	3:0

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