Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 4 May 2026, Monday


	Pablo Carreno-Busta		Martin Damm

	1	2
			Watch
	1.43	2.65
	1.45	2.99
	1.47	2.62	Watch
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.45	2.56	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.61)	2.69 ↑ (2.2)

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pablo Carreno-Busta
65%

Martin Damm
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.8%

42.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.1%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pablo Carreno-Busta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pablo Carreno-Busta's performance.

Martin Damm has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Martin Damm might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Martin Damm than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	0%	15.4%

Pablo Carreno Busta - Martin Damm Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Carreno Busta (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Pablo Carreno-Busta will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 94. Damm is ranked ATP: 126.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Damm may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Carreno Busta is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
23.04.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Marton Fucsovics	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
11.04.26	Pedro Martinez Portero - Pablo Carreno-Busta	Carreno-Busta P. Retired ✺
ATP Challenger
29.03.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	0:2 ✺
28.03.26	Sebastian Ofner - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LW?LW
- Martin Damm
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Martin Damm - Jakub Mensik	0:2 ✺
23.04.26	Alexei Popyrin - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
21.04.26	Christian Garin - Martin Damm	1:2 ✺
20.04.26	Andrea Pellegrino - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
06.04.26	Alex Rybakov - Martin Damm	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 LWWWL

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