Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 6 May 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Rome 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	01:55	beIN Sports 1
Brazil	12:55	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	18:55	Max Sport 1
Czech Republic	17:55	Oneplay, Premier Sport 1, Premier Sport 2
Denmark	17:55	TV2 Play
Finland	18:55	MTV Katsomo+
France	17:55	Eurosport 2
Germany	17:55	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
Netherlands	17:55	Ziggo Sport 4, Ziggo Sport
Poland	17:55	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Extra 1, Polsat Sport Extra 2
Portugal	16:55	Sport TV2
Romania	18:55	Prima Sport 3
Sweden	17:55	TV4 Play
Ukraine	18:55	Setanta Sports Premium
United Kingdom	16:55	Sky Sports Tennis


	Pablo Carreno-Busta		Alejandro Tabilo

	1	2
	3	1.4	Watch
	2.65	1.47	Watch
	3.04	1.44
	2.95	1.38	Watch
	2.75	1.44
	2.92	1.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↑ (2.77)	1.43 ↓ (1.44)

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pablo Carreno-Busta
33.1%

Alejandro Tabilo
66.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.3%

65.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

64.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Alejandro Tabilo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alejandro Tabilo than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	0%	45.5%

Pablo Carreno Busta - Alejandro Tabilo Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Carreno Busta will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Tabilo will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Carreno Busta: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Carreno Busta (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 21 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +4 Games - Carreno Busta (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Carreno Busta (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 91. Tabilo is ranked ATP: 35.

Recent performances by Carreno Busta have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tabilo is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Carreno Busta may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Tabilo might have a minor edge in this game.

We predict that Tabilo will win today's game, with odds of 1.43.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Carreno Busta won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Alejandro Tabilo - the odds 1.44 are the expected chance of winning is 65.72%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Roma
05.05.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Stanislas Wawrinka	Carreno-Busta P. Walkover ✺
04.05.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Martin Damm	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
23.04.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Marton Fucsovics	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
11.04.26	Pedro Martinez Portero - Pablo Carreno-Busta	Carreno-Busta P. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 ?WLW?
- Alejandro Tabilo
ATP Challenger
03.05.26	Zizou Bergs - Alejandro Tabilo	1:2 ✺
02.05.26	Ethan Quinn - Alejandro Tabilo	1:2 ✺
01.05.26	Ignacio Buse - Alejandro Tabilo	0:2 ✺
30.04.26	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Alejandro Tabilo	1:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
24.04.26	Jiri Lehecka - Alejandro Tabilo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
17.10.25	Alejandro Tabilo - Pablo Carreno-Busta	1:2
ATP Cup
31.12.21	Alejandro Tabilo - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2

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