Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 5 May 2026, Tuesday


	Pablo Carreno-Busta		Stanislas Wawrinka

	1	2
			Watch
	1.41	2.7
	1.44	2.94
	1.39	2.9	Watch
	1.4	2.75
	1.4	2.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.48)	2.8 ↑ (2.53)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pablo Carreno-Busta
66.6%

Stanislas Wawrinka
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.1%

36.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.3%

40.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pablo Carreno-Busta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Stanislas Wawrinka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pablo Carreno-Busta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stanislas Wawrinka than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Stanislas Wawrinka could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.7%	0%	6.2%

Pablo Carreno Busta - Stanislas Wawrinka Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Carreno Busta (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Pablo Carreno-Busta will win (15 of 16 users predict this - 93.75%).
Confidence interval (95%): 81.89% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 91. Wawrinka is ranked ATP: 125.

Carreno Busta has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Wawrinka is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Wawrinka may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Carreno Busta might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carreno Busta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.6:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Roma
04.05.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Martin Damm	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
23.04.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Marton Fucsovics	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
11.04.26	Pedro Martinez Portero - Pablo Carreno-Busta	Carreno-Busta P. Retired ✺
ATP Challenger
29.03.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLW?L
- Stanislas Wawrinka
ATP Roma
04.05.26	Stefano Travaglia - Stanislas Wawrinka	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
28.04.26	Stanislas Wawrinka - Sebastian Ofner	0:2 ✺
ATP Barcelona
13.04.26	Cameron Norrie - Stanislas Wawrinka	2:1 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
06.04.26	Sebastian Baez - Stanislas Wawrinka	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
24.03.26	Stanislas Wawrinka - Matteo Martineau	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Bastad
11.07.22	Stanislas Wawrinka - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2
Abu Dhabi Exhibition
28.12.17	Stanislas Wawrinka - Pablo Carreno-Busta	Canceled
ATP Indian Wells
18.03.17	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Stanislas Wawrinka	0:2
ATP Geneva
19.05.16	Stanislas Wawrinka - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0
ATP Estoril
04.05.13	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Stanislas Wawrinka	1:2

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