Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Valencia, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 14 May 2026, Thursday


	Sebastian Baez		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
	1.62	2.2	Watch
	1.61	2.19	Watch
	1.66	2.31
	1.62	2.25	Watch
	1.62	2.2	Watch
	1.62	2.16	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.7)	2.22 ↑ (2.06)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Baez
57.7%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
42.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

45.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.8%

48.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Pablo Carreno-Busta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sebastian Baez that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pablo Carreno-Busta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	0%	28.6%

Sebastian Baez - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Baez will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Carreno Busta will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Baez is ranked ATP: 65. Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 91.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Carreno Busta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Baez won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Challenger
12.05.26	Sebastian Baez - Roberto Carballes Baena	2:0 ✺
ATP Roma
08.05.26	Sebastian Baez - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
06.05.26	Jenson Brooksby - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
ATP Madrid
23.04.26	Vilius Gaubas - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
ATP Barcelona
14.04.26	Tomas Machac - Sebastian Baez	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLWLL
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Challenger
12.05.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Francisco Comesana	2:0 ✺
ATP Roma
06.05.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Alejandro Tabilo	0:2 ✺
05.05.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Stanislas Wawrinka	Carreno-Busta P. Walkover ✺
04.05.26	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Martin Damm	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
25.04.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WL?WL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Winston-Salem
19.08.25	Sebastian Baez - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:0
ATP Basel
25.10.22	Sebastian Baez - Pablo Carreno-Busta	0:2
ATP Monte Carlo
11.04.22	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Sebastian Baez	2:1

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