Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 7 May 2025, Wednesday


	Camilo Ugo Carabelli		Pablo Carreno-Busta

	1	2
	2	1.8	Watch
	1.91	1.85	Watch
	1.97	1.85	Watch
	1.9	1.97
	1.89	1.89	Watch
			Watch
	1.92	1.88	Watch
	1.97	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.83)	1.87 ↑ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
49.1%

Pablo Carreno-Busta
50.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.2%

48.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Pablo Carreno-Busta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Camilo Ugo Carabelli than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Carreno-Busta than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	0%	83.3%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Pablo Carreno Busta Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Ugo Carabelli will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Carreno Busta will win (votes: 4 - 80%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ugo Carabelli (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 22 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Ugo Carabelli is ranked ATP: 60. Carreno Busta is ranked ATP: 98.

Ugo Carabelli has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Carreno Busta has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ugo Carabelli may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Camilo Ugo Carabelli - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Camilo Ugo Carabelli
ATP Madrid
23.04.25	Christopher OConnell - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
ATP Barcelona
12.04.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Daniel Elahi Galan	Canceled ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
07.04.25	Alexandre Muller - Camilo Ugo Carabelli	2:0 ✺
06.04.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Hamad Medjedovic	2:0 ✺
05.04.25	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Hugo Gaston	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 L?LWW
- Pablo Carreno-Busta
ATP Roma
06.05.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Roman Andres Burruchaga	1:2 ✺
05.05.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Thiago Augustin Tirante	Tirante T. A. retired ✺
ATP Madrid
23.04.25	Nuno Borges - Pablo Carreno-Busta	2:1 ✺
ATP Barcelona
15.04.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Arthur Fils	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.04.25	Pablo Carreno-Busta - Kamil Majchrzak	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0.8 L?LLL

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